Market Insight | Week 42
In 2024 so far, Europe’s CPP imports are robust, with diesel/gasoil continuing to account for the majority of total volumes. Diesel/gasoil, which is vital for both transportation and heating, represented the largest share of imports across most months, with a total volume of approximately 67.5 million tons (mt) from January to September 2024. Gasoline imports totaled around 23.6 million tons during this period, with significant fluctuations throughout the year.
When comparing September 2024 to previous months and years, several trends emerge for both gasoline and diesel imports. In September 2024, diesel imports were approximately 8.07 million tons, an increase of 8.7% compared to August 2024, which recorded 7.43 million tons, and a 7% year-over-year increase compared to September 2023, which recorded 7.53 million tons. This indicates that diesel demand in September 2024 has experienced a stronger recovery compared to the same period in 2023.
Similarly, gasoline imports in September 2024 were recorded at 2.56 million tons, which represents a 5.3% decrease compared to August 2024 at 2.70 million tons. However, gasoline imports saw a significant increase compared to September 2023, when only 1.81 million tons were imported, marking a 41% year-over-year growth. This substantial rise in gasoline imports reflects increased transportation activity and a strong recovery in demand following the economic disruptions caused by the pandemic.
When comparing these values to the average monthly imports from 2019 to 2023, diesel volumes in September 2024 were significantly above the 5-year-average of 6.63 million tons, with 8.07 million tons imported in September 2024, representing a 22% increase. In August 2024, diesel imports were 7.43 million tons, slightly above the 5-year-average of 6.51 million tons, representing a 14% increase.
Similarly, gasoline volumes in September 2024 also surpassed the 5-year-average of 1.89 million tons, with 2.56 million tons imported, marking a 35% increase compared to the 5-year-average. In August 2024, gasoline imports were 2.70 million tons, which is also higher than the average of 2.07 million tons, showing a 30% increase.
This stronger demand for diesel and gasoline in 2024, despite energy transition efforts, is driven by several factors. In Europe, the heavy-duty transport sector continues to be a significant consumer of diesel, accounting for 65.4% of road transport fuel in 2023. The increased movement of goods and raw materials has kept demand elevated, particularly as the European market for heavy-duty vehicles is expected to reach nearly 39 billion USD by the end of 2024. Furthermore, while energy transition measures are gaining momentum, the continued reliance on diesel for freight and industrial activities has bolstered demand, especially as supplies have tightened since the Russian oil sanctions
Shifting to the suppliers, United States is the top supplier of both the diesel and gasoline in Europe, with 7.2 mt and 2.3 mt accordingly. In diesel, Saudi Arabia and India are close to each other regarding exports to Europe at around 6.5 mt each while in gasoline, Russia and Saudi Arabia to a lesser extend supply Europe.
This increased demand for imports highlights Europe’s reliance on external sources, especially in the face of geopolitical tensions. Despite efforts toward greener energy, the heavy-duty transport and industrial sectors remain dependent on diesel, while gasoline demand continues to support private transportation. Key suppliers like the U.S. and Russia remain crucial as Europe balances energy security with its transition to cleaner alternatives.